TIMES-Ireland Model

The TIMES-Ireland Model (TIM) produces energy system pathways for energy supply and demand in Ireland consistent with either a carbon budget or a decarbonisation target. Key inputs include primary energy resource availability and costs, the technical and cost evolution of new mitigation options, maximum feasible uptake rates of new technologies and, crucially, climate policy targets. The model outputs give the lowest-cost configuration of the energy system (in terms of investment in and operation of energy technologies and fuel mix) which meets future energy demands at the lowest cost, while respecting technical, social and policy constraints.

Alternatively, TIM can be used to assess the implications of certain policies, namely regulatory or technology target-setting (for example, biofuels blending obligation or sales/stock share target for electric vehicles).

More information on the TIMES model generator and specific information about TIM can be found in the Documentation.

TIM is the successor model to the Irish TIMES Model, which has been developed by the MaREI Energy Policy and Modelling Group (EPMG) at University College Cork since 2010 and funded through various projects by the EPA, SEAI, SFI and the NTR Foundation, has played a significant role in informing the evidence base of Irish climate target setting.

The re-development process has been undertaken to better inform increased national climate mitigation ambition, to take into account the changing energy technology landscape, and to take advantage of new advances in energy systems optimisation modelling techniques.

This work is being undertaken as part of a number of research projects, including CAPACITY, funded by the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications, the SFI-funded CHIMERA project, MaREI PhD support, and core academic staff in UCC.

Expert review process - March 2021

This webpage represents the first external release of TIM, and includes initial scenario descriptions, documentation and results for expert review. Please note that these results represent initial, unreviewed results for consultation and they should not be cited or used.

The purpose of this expert review process in March 2021 is to gain feedback from policy, sectoral and modelling experts, ahead of the first public release of model results in early-May 2021. These will feed into a report outlining net-zero emissions energy system pathways for Ireland in order to inform the achievement of ambitious national decarbonisation targets.

Key questions

We are seeking feedback on both the model inputs, assumptions and results. Where possible, please provide quantitative evidence for alternative assumptions or scenarios.

  • Is the deployment scale and speed of new mitigation technologies technically feasible?
  • Are there societal or political constraints limiting the deployment of certain technologies or fuels?
  • Are there additional costs which should be considered?
  • What are the key sensitivities and uncertainties which should be explored with additional scenario analysis?
  • Are there alternative mitigation levers which should be included?

Timeline

Please email comments to h.daly@ucc.ie by March 26th.

Team

Original developers of the TIMES-Ireland Model

  • Vahid Aryanpur
  • Olexandr Balyk
  • Alessandro Chiodi
  • Hannah Daly
  • Ankita Gaur
  • James Glynn
  • Jason McGuire
  • Xiufeng Yue

Contributors

  • Paul Deane
  • Maurizio Gargiulo
  • Gerald Lyons
  • Brian O'Gallachoir
  • Fionn Rogan
  • Andrew Smith